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November 2022 Market thoughts

First, I will say I understand we have a supply issue, I understand immigration targets for Canada but….in my humble opinion 

Nothing can fight the RE math. Do you know what is stronger than demand? Affordability! Current prices don’t work with today’s mortgage rates. Period. This is also why we have seen prices drop 20-30% off February highs when supply has not changed! Its just simply demand destruction. 

In the residential market I think people are either:

A) In a adjustable rate mortgage and already feeling the pain of increased payments, cost of living going up. They are stuck trying to navigate this and in a lot of cases hanging on for dear life. 

B) People in a variable rate mortgages, the bank of Canada has said 50% of people have reached their trigger rates or are paying 100% of their payment in interest, I have also heard banks are now allowing unpaid interest to be added to the principle amount….boy thats a slippery slope

C) In a fixed rate and going to feel the pain on renewal in the next 2-3 years when their payments jump 200-300%. Will banks allow for longer amortizations on renewals? Could be

In the commercial market, sellers and buyers have a large disconnect. Sellers want 4 cap prices in a 6% interest rate environment, again the math just doesn’t work 

That doesn’t mean real estate transactions wont happen, people will still need to sell, still need to buy but the truth is, sales are already down 49% y/y from October 2021 to October 2022. So buyers being strapped or sellers having no where to go because of supply issues is real. I expect more of the same in 2023

15 Examples of Buyers Breaching their Real Estate Contracts

As the market has turned in the spring of 2022 unfortunately there were many breached contracts, and as we discussed with a well known and respected real estate litigation lawyer, the number of current cases is unprecedented. These unfortunate cases already have or will go to trial within the next couple of years, here we are listing 15 examples of the cases from the past to illustrate what happens when the buyer breaches the agreement of purchase and sale.

Different cases: resale, preconstruction, deposits delivered or not, selling for less and selling for more, some buyers couldn’t close others just changed their mind, mostly higher end properties but not all. 

What they all have in common is that the party breaching the contract loses, and the awards can be life altering.

For each case we are providing a link to the actual ruling.

Tabrizi v. Majesty Development Group Inc

Purchase Price: $1,960,000.

Date Purchased: March 2017.

Deposit Amount: $150,000.

Damages Awarded: $659,570.

Pollard v. Perry

Purchase Price: $1,050,000.

Date Purchased: June 2021.

Deposit Amount: $50,000.

Damages Awarded: $140,886.

Deposit was not delivered.

Masoomi v. Chen

Purchase Price: $1,500,000.

Date Purchased: February 2017.

Deposit Amount: $50,000.

Damages Awarded: $174,284.

Giancola v. Dobrydnev

Purchase Price: $1,167,000.

Date Purchased: March 2017.

Deposit Amount: $50,000.

Damages Awarded: $306,130.

Kermati v Ko

Purchase Price: $1,410,000.

Date Purchased: November 2019.

Deposit Amount: $100,000.

Damages Awarded: Amount of the deposit.

The seller sold the property for $115,000 more than the original sale price within couple of weeks after the contract was breached and was awarded the deposit of $100,000.

Tribute (Grandview) Limited v. Rafindram

Purchase Price: $1,038,990 plus upgrades of $101,112.

Date Purchased: September 2016.

Deposit Amount: $99,166

Damages Awarded: $381,971 plus $22,000 legal fees.

Prowse et al. v. Noroozi

Purchase Price: $2,450,000.

Date Purchased: March 2017.

Deposit Amount: $150,000

Damages Awarded: $806,380.

Rosehaven Homes et al. v Aluko et al.

Purchase Price: $1,523,162.

Date Purchased: April 2017.

Deposit Amount: $136,723.

Damages Awarded: $331,922 plus interest.

The property sold for $2,328,800 in February 2022, $805,638 more than the price as per breached contract.

Greco v. Padovani

Purchase Price: $3,200,000.

Date Purchased: June 2017.

Deposit Amount: $400,000.

Damages Awarded: $1,227,756.

Pomata Investment v. Yang

Purchase Price: $2,214,813.

Date Purchased: September 2016.

Deposit Amount: $150,000.

Damages Awarded: $616,601.

Country Wide Homes v. Cui

Purchase Price: $4,100,258.

Date Purchased: March 2017.

Deposit Amount: $334,100.

Damages Awarded: $957,607 plus interest.

Mouralian v. Grouleau

Purchase Price: $1,499,000.

Date Purchased: May 2021.

Deposit Amount: $70,000.

Damages Awarded: Forfeited deposit of $70,000 plus $12,000 costs.

The property sold shortly after the contract was breached for $1,677,022, $178,022 than the original price per APS.

Artista Homes (Kleinburg) Inc. v. Griu

Purchase Price: $1,728,109.

Date Purchased: February 2017.

Deposit Amount: $134,738.

Damages Awarded: $612,847.

Bang v. Sebastian

Purchase Price: $995,000.

Date Purchased: May 2017.

Deposit Amount: $35,000.

Damages Awarded: $122,221 plus interest.

Park Avenue Homes Corp. v. Malik

Purchase Price: $788,900.

Date Purchased: February 2017.

Deposit Amount: $60,000.

Damages Awarded: $158,936.

If you enter into a real estate contract, please ensure you have the ability to fulfill it.

So you are locked into a variable or adjustable  rate mortgage , now what?

First of all, I am going to say that there is a lot of people hurting right now who are too embarrassed to talk about it. 

There isn’t anybody I know who thought we would see interest rates go from .25% to 4% in less than a year. Scotia bank was the only bank I know who predicted 8 rate increases which would have got us to 2.25% 

The bank of Canada governor, Tiff Macklem, telling people in October of 2020 not to worry, interest rates will stay low for a long time. 

I don’t know a single mortgage broker who was telling people, myself included, to take a fixed rate mortgage.

So please, don’t feel bad, or embarrassed for taking a variable or adjustable rate mortgage. 

So now what, what are your options besides cancelling your Disney plus memberships. 

Keep in mind I am not a mortgage broker and everybody situation will be different. From my prospective at this point, it does not make sense to switch to a 5 year fixed rate, but looking into locking into a 2 year or 3 year fixed might be a good option to help give you some stability. 

If you don’t lock in, you are essentially riding the variable wave. There are still talks of increased rate hikes coming but hoping we see the rates come back down sooner rather than later. 

Next would be to tighten up expenses, while Cynthia Freeland took a lot of heat for saying Canadians should cancel their Disney plus memberships to save expenses, her message isn’t wrong. Cancelling services that are luxurys can help you get back to a comfortable monthly carry. 

Selling liabilities is never a bad move, if you have toys like cars, motorcycles, boats especially if they have monthly payments… unfortunately, they may have to go. I don’t like selling assets like stocks or real estate but it may come to that point depending on your situation. 

Your last option if you do not want to lower or can’t lower expenses is to increase your income. 

Some tough choices are going to have to happen, I know nobody is talking about this because we are proud Canadians, but you are not alone, this will be a tough couple of years. Yes years. Please adjust and prepare accordingly. 

I am always a phone call, text, or email away if you want to confidentially strategize. I promise you I wont just ask for your listings. 

How to start investing in Real Estate

I was young, broke, and barely enough money to afford a down payment. My wife and I purchased a small bungalow in Oshawa with 5% down and we living in that house for 3-4 years and we were lucky that the housing market had increased significantly so we were able to use some of that equity to put a legal basement suite into our home. We got our first renter who payed 1400 dollars a month covering a good portion of our mortgage. We then moved into our next home, again putting 5% down and plan on doing something similar.

If I were buying my first home, I would look to do something similar. We couldn’t afford to do the renovation right away so we waiting until it was a feasible option.

My point is, you don’t need to build an empire overnight! Investing is slow calculated discussions that over time, pay dividing…literally!

Thursday. September 18th Investor Email

*|MC:SUBJECT|*

Hello Investors,

Lots of good opportunities hitting the market this week and specifically today. I have one option that will be sold this evening  and a two others that just came to the market. The fourth one is interesting and I ran the numbers as if you were house hacking.

These weeks are the best time to buy, where there are lots of different options, not everybody attacking the same property. 

Kind Regards,

Cam Cassidy, Real Estate Investor and Broker 

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Upcoming workshops 


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Saturday, October 19th: 10:30 am – 1pm (lunch on me to follow)

Saturday, November 9th: 10:30am-1pm (lunch on me to follow)


> Limited spots, please contact me for availability and to reserve your spot


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96 Thornton Rd S – $449,000

As I mentioned this house will be sold tonight as it has three registered offers on it. Absolutely endless options with this house though, it sits directly across from the Trent University campus in Oshawa that is expanding, its a house house with an extension on it giving you 4 exciting bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2 living rooms. The basement has great ceiling height and you could put another 2/3 bedroom legal suite in there. The numbers aren’t the best, but this house has endless potential. Here is the listing 

List Price $450,000
Purchase Price $470,000
Renos Cost. $113,000
After Repair Value $625,000

Capital Needed $228,804
Capital Left In Deal $104,804

Monthly Rent $3,325
Monthly Exp $3,041
Cashflow after refi $284

Cap Rate 4.58%
Avg Annual ROI 14%
Profit after 5 Yrs $72,716

Here is the detailed financial sheet
451 Loring St – 439,900

This is in Donevan area, solid bungalow that is ready to be turned into a legal 2-unit. Here is the listing 

List Price $439,900
Purchase Price $430,000
Renos Cost $113,000
After Repair Value $600,000

Capital Needed $219,101
Capital Left In Deal $83,101

Monthly Rent $3,075
Monthly Exp $2,920
Cashflow after refi $155

Cap Rate 4.34%
Avg Annual ROI 15%
Profit after 5 Yrs $62,779


Here is the detailed financial sheet
77 Melrose St – 489,000

This is a great house on a nice street in Oshawa and its already a legal 2-unit. The basement apartment isn’t the greatest, it only uses half the basement so you may want to rework it and one could argue the kitchen upstairs needs to be replaced. Its a tricky one, because you are paying a premium for the legal certificate and it still needs some work. Here is the listing 

List Price $489,900
Purchase Price $490,000
Renos Cost $33,900
After Repair Value $590,000

Capital Needed $154,555
Capital Left In Dea $74,555

Monthly Rent $3,175
Monthly Exp $2,776
Cashflow after refi $399

Cap Rate 4.41%
Avg Annual ROI 21%
Profit after 5 Yrs $76,524

Here is the detailed financial sheet
292 Vancouver St – 459,900

This is a semi-detached legal 2 unit that is in pretty good shape upstairs, the basement is only renting for 900 a month unfortunately and I haven’t enquired about vacant possession yet. I love the semi-detached play, you get a reduced price, reduced property tax, and rents are almost identical. I decided to do something a bit different with the numbers here, I used 5% down as if somebody were moving into the upper unit. The basement would cover 1300 dollars a month worth of expenses so your ‘cashflow’ is what you would have to pay each month. ($1343)   Here is the listing 

List Price $459,000
Purchase Price $450,000
Renos Cost $0
After Repair Value $450,000

Capital Needed $49,500
Capital Left In Deal $49,500

Monthly Rent $1,300
Monthly Exp $2,643
Cashflow after refi- $1,343

Cap Rate 1.81%
Avg Annual ROI 10%
Profit after 5 Yrs $23,567

Here is the detailed financial sheet
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Why Invest in Oshawa?

When looking at where to invest in real estate the first thing you must do is compare the income to expenses. When I purchase an investment property, will it generate cashflow each month with all expenses considered? Oshawa is the last City in the Greater Toronto Area where you can generate cashflow on an investment property, a trend that I think will only last so long. House prices in Whitby, Ajax, Pickering, Scarborough, and Toronto and surrounding area do not generate cashflow, period. Now there are lots of other Cites in Ontario that generate cashflow, but none that have the ‘protection’ of Toronto. Even though Oshawa has some major employers such as General Motors, Ministry of Finance, University of Ontario, Durham College, Lakeridge Health, and Ontario Power Generation we still have 30% of our workforce commuting to Toronto. Why is that so important to me? We are in the rental business, and as long as there is work, there are people that need to rent!

  • Population Growth: Double per capita than the USA, over 100K people coming in each year.  The vacancy rate across the Golden horseshoe is in the low single digits. 
  • Land Scarcity:  Lake Ontario on one side, the largest Green Belt in the world on the other, as population increases, land is becoming scarce.
  • Lack of Supply:  Simply put, not enough homes are being built to satisfy the supply for years to come.
  • Canadian Desirability:  Toronto voted #1 in 2017 for quality of life and also a key area for foreigners to invest their dollars into.
  • Transportation Funding:  407 Extension to 115, Durham region will both get 4 new GO stations by 2023, this in preparation for the population growth over the next several decades.

While there is a lot that can be looked at when it comes to economic drivers and market factors, looking for areas where the city planners are investing in transportation, and where big development is starting to follow is a consistent, predictable way to find the best natural appreciation and where growth is most likely to occur.